The Keywordless

Don't judge last week yet: how I use Google Ads' Days to conversion report to project month-end ROAS

Jerry Quin — Fri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Recent days often look worse than they'll end up. Google Ads' Days to conversion segment shows by how much, so you can set month-end ROAS targets that hold.

Key takeaways

Google Ads' main conversion columns credit conversions to the day of the click, so your most recent days can keep filling in for weeks. Google says this can sometimes make CPA look inflated and ROAS look deflated.
Segment by Conversions > Days to conversion on an older, fully reported date range and you get your account's own curve: how much of the final conversion value shows up after one day, one week, two weeks and so on.
Use that curve to project recent days to where they'll likely land, so week over week and year over year compare like with like.
Work backward from your goal: if a month is usually about 89% reported when it closes, a 4.0 ROAS goal means roughly 3.6 on day one of the next month.

The percentages in this post are made-up examples to show the math. Use your own account's numbers.

Every Monday, someone looks at last week next to the week before and decides last week was worse. A lot of the time it wasn't. It just hasn't finished reporting yet.

The short answer

Don't undervalue performance that hasn't matured. The Days to conversion segment in Google Ads tells you how much of your conversion value usually shows up late, so you can project recent days forward and set a month-end target that already accounts for it.

I've tracked this by hand, month by month, for years. Google's Days to conversion segment gets me to the same place, and I can build it from whichever season I need. I think it's one of the most underrated reports in Google Ads.

Why recent days always look worse

Google Ads' main conversion columns report conversions on the day of the click, not the day of the conversion. Google's example: if your ad was clicked last week and that person converted this week, "both the click and the conversion are reported back to last week." That keeps spend and conversions on the same date, which is what makes CPA and ROAS line up.

The catch is that last week's spend is fully counted while some of last week's conversions haven't happened yet. Google says so directly.

"Because Google Ads reports conversions by query date, you may not always see the most updated conversion numbers. They can sometimes cause CPA to look inflated and ROAS to look deflated."

Google Ads Help

Depending on your conversion window, conversions can keep coming in for up to 90 days after the click. So a day from last week and a day from a month ago aren't at the same stage. Comparing them as if they were is how good weeks get called bad ones.

Where to find Days to conversion

On the Campaigns page, click Segment, then Conversions, then Days to conversion. Google says it splits your conversion columns into up to 19 rows, one for each range of days between the ad and the conversion. The rows run from less than one day out to 90 days, the longest conversion window Google allows.

Google gives one instruction worth following exactly: make sure the date range "ends at least 30 days ago (or longer if you have a longer conversion window)." If the range is too recent, the curve you build from it is incomplete too.

Turn on Conv. value next to Conversions. If you manage to ROAS, value is the number you're projecting.

Build your account's curve

Take a fully reported period and add up the share of conversion value in each row, from the shortest lag to the longest. That running total is your curve: how much of a day's final value is usually in by the time it's one day old, seven days old, fourteen days old, and so on.

Here's a made-up example to show the shape:

Worked example

How much of a day's final conversion value is in, by age

1 day old: 60%
7 days old: 84%
14 days old: 91%
30 days old: 97%
90 days old: 100%

Made-up numbers to show the shape. Build yours from your own account.

To project a recent day, divide what's reported so far by the share you'd expect at its age. A day that's seven days old showing $8,400 in conversion value would land around $10,000 ($8,400 ÷ 0.84).

This is where it gets confusing, so take it slowly. It isn't one static number. Something from last week is less mature than something from two weeks ago, so every day gets its own adjustment based on how old it is. That's the point: one flat percentage across the whole week would get you a rougher estimate.

Make week over week and year over year fair

I use this most for week-over-week checks and month pacing. Take an account where a big share of conversions arrive in the seven days after the week ends. Its week-over-week numbers will always look poor on Monday, because the week before has had seven more days to fill in.

Here's a made-up Monday:

Worked example

Week over week, before and after projecting

Last week, reported ROAS: 3.1
Last week, share reported so far: 78%
Last week, projected (3.1 ÷ 0.78): ≈ 4.0
Week before, reported ROAS: 3.6
Week before, share reported so far: 88%
Week before, projected (3.6 ÷ 0.88): ≈ 4.1

Made-up numbers. The share reported is each day's share, weighted by that day's spend.

What looked like a drop of half a point is really about flat. The same goes for year over year. Last year's version of this week has had a full year to report. This year's has had a few days. Project this year's numbers first, then compare.

For the curve itself, I use a longer lookback. For peak season or Q4, I build it from last year's peak season, because in my experience the lag is shorter then, or I use an aggregate of the last year. Either way, I'd rather under-deliver on a projection than over-promise.

Set the month-end target backward from the goal

Say the client's goal is a 4.0 ROAS. On the first day of the next month, the last day of the month is a day old and the first day is about a month old. Weight each day's maturity by its spend, and in this made-up account the month is about 89% reported when it closes.

Worked example

The month-end target, worked backward from the goal

Goal ROAS, once fully reported: 4.0
Share of the month reported when it closes: 89%
ROAS to hit at month end (4.0 × 0.89): ≈ 3.6

Made-up numbers. The 89% is each day's share reported, weighted by that day's spend.

So the number to hit at month end isn't 4.0. It's about 3.6. If the month closes at 3.6 and the curve holds, it should keep climbing toward 4.0 as late conversions come in.

The opposite case matters too. If you hold the account to 4.0 on the last day of the month, it will likely end up above the goal once everything reports. Don't shortchange it by judging it on numbers that haven't matured.

How close the projections get

A projection is a projection. Don't assume that's what you'll get. But I think it's the most educated estimate you can make, because it comes from your own account's data.

I go back to the numbers I projected and check them once the month has fully reported. In my experience they've usually landed within 0.3 ROAS points, and sometimes within 0.03 (I know, specific).

Google applies the same caution to its own tools

Smart Bidding already adjusts for this. Google says its algorithms lean on recent data "while also accounting for the length of your conversion cycle," which "helps prevent overreactions to recent clicks that are experiencing conversion delays." Google's own guidance on judging performance follows the same logic:

When setting a target, Google's example is to look at your historical CPA or ROAS over a 28-day period, leaving out the past 2 days, if you have a 2-day conversion delay.
For value-based bidding experiments, Google says to exclude recent days "where less than 90% of your conversions have been reported."

Where it helps most

Every business type can use this. E-commerce is the easiest place to start, but that's partly because e-commerce is what I prefer to work on.

It also helps manage expectations. I use it to have a better conversation about performance with hard numbers: actual next to projected, and why that's the projection. It comes from their own account, not out of thin air.

What to do

Pull Days to conversion with Conv. value on a date range that ended at least 30 days ago, longer if your conversion window is longer. Turn it into a running total, project your recent days by their age, and set your month-end target as your goal times how complete a month usually is when it closes. Then check your projection once the month has fully reported, and adjust the curve.

Sources

Google Ads lead forms can flag qualified leads

Jerry Quin — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Google's help page describes qualifying responses for lead forms on Search campaigns. You pick which multiple-choice answers count, and a matching submission is tagged as a qualified lead.

How it works

When you create a lead form or edit an existing one for a Search campaign, you can add a multiple-choice question from Google's list or suggest your own custom question. Google's example is "Which model are you interested in?" You then pick one or more of the answers to act as the qualifying response.

Google says a submission with a qualifying answer is tagged as a qualified lead automatically.

What shows up in your data

Each lead submission gets a Lead stage in the data that goes to your CSV, webhook and API. Google also says that once a qualifying question is in an active campaign, a conversion called "Lead form - Response qualified (Google-hosted)" is automatically added to the Qualified lead goal.

Two things to know before you edit

Qualifying questions are required and can't be marked optional. If you want to use qualifying responses and your current form has no qualifying questions, you'll need to add them. Google says that may require creating a new form in some cases.

What I'd do this week

These are my suggestions, not steps from Google.

Pick the answer that separates a real lead from a casual one. A clear question is easier to act on than several vague ones.
You may see fewer submissions, since the question is required. Judge the form on qualified leads, not total leads.
Check your goal settings. The conversion lands in the Qualified lead goal, so look at how that goal is used before you change bidding around it.
Wait before swapping forms. If you need a new form, run it next to the old one long enough to compare lead quality.

Sources

About qualifying responses in lead forms

Meta's Ads Super Burst books a 3 to 24 hour window

Jerry Quin — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Ads Super Burst lets advertisers book a window of 3 to 24 hours for a brand awareness campaign. It is moving to general availability this month, rolling out in phases.

What Ads Super Burst is

Ads Super Burst lets you book a window of 3 to 24 hours and reach your audience inside that window. The post describes it as "a new way for advertisers and agencies to build brand awareness through short, highly concentrated campaigns."

Its stated examples of when to use one are the window around a product launch, timing a campaign to an external event such as an awards night, or the first weekend of a new sports season. Category exclusivity is available, so no other advertiser in your category can book the same window.

You plan these campaigns in Reach Planner, where you can "secure inventory during your desired dates and get an estimate of reach and price, with guaranteed delivery tied to those estimates." The post says Super Burst "is moving to general availability this month, rolling out in phases."

What the post doesn't say: which apps or placements Super Burst runs in, such as Facebook or Instagram, and how it is priced beyond the "estimate of reach and price" in Reach Planner.

The other three products

These differ in how far along they are.

First Impression Ads is a test. The post says "we are now testing it in the United States," and calls it "an early test, with just one brand per day."

Reels Trending Ads isn't new, but it's getting more options: "15 always-on standard topics," including new Home & Garden and Spanish language categories, plus seasonal lineups. Custom audience exclusions are coming "later this year."

Aggregated View Time is described as "a way to measure and optimize the total time someone spends with your brand across a week, instead of each impression on its own." The post says "this product is in alpha."

Who has it

Of the new products, only Super Burst has stated timing: "this month, rolling out in phases." The page does not say which advertisers get access first. First Impression Ads is a test in the United States with "just one brand per day." Aggregated View Time is in alpha, and the page gives no access details.

What I'd do this week

This is advice, not from the post.

If you run brand or awareness work, list the two or three moments in the next quarter that matter most, such as a launch date or a big event. Those are the cases the post pitches Super Burst for.
Look in Reach Planner for Super Burst once the phased rollout reaches your account. The page says the tool gives an estimate of reach and price for the dates you pick.
Don't build a plan around First Impression Ads or Aggregated View Time yet. One is a one-brand-a-day test and the other is an alpha.

Sources

Meta Brand Building Summit: New Ways to Help Marketers Build Unforgettable Brands on Meta

Max CPC leaves new non-portfolio Microsoft campaigns

Jerry Quin — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Starting January 12, 2027, Max CPC will no longer be available when you create new non-portfolio campaigns in Microsoft Advertising. Existing non-portfolio campaigns keep their current Max CPC settings.

What Microsoft says

The post comes from Microsoft's Bing Ads API blog, so it describes how the API will behave. Here is what it says.

The date. Starting January 12, 2027, Max CPC will no longer be available when creating new non-portfolio campaigns, regardless of account type.
Which bidding strategies. The change applies to campaigns using Target CPA, Target ROAS, Max Conversions, Max Conversion Value and Max Clicks.
What isn't changing. Target Impression Share and Enhanced CPC (eCPC) are not affected. Portfolio bid strategies continue to support Max CPC for both new and existing campaigns.
Existing campaigns. Non-portfolio campaigns created before January 12, 2027 keep their current Max CPC settings. But if Max CPC is removed from one of them after January 12, that campaign can't set a new Max CPC later.
What the API does. Any attempt to create or update an affected non-portfolio campaign with Max CPC will fail, and the API will return an explicit error saying Max CPC isn't supported. Max CPC won't be silently removed from the request.

Microsoft's recommended actions are to use available optimization controls: bidding targets, campaign budgets and conversion value rules.

Who has it

If you build campaigns through the API, or use a tool that does, this is the one to read twice. A request that includes Max CPC on an affected campaign will return an error, not quietly drop the cap. The post doesn't say how the change shows up in the Microsoft Advertising interface.

What I'd do this week

These are my suggestions, not steps from Microsoft.

List where you use a Max CPC cap today. Note which campaigns pair a cap with one of the five strategies above.
Don't remove a cap you may want back. Microsoft says a campaign that loses its Max CPC after January 12 can't set a new one.
Check your scripts and tools. If anything creates campaigns with a Max CPC value, find out before January 12 so it doesn't start returning errors.
Plan the replacement. Decide whether tighter targets, budgets or conversion value rules would do the job a cap does for you.

Sources

Upcoming change: Max CPC removal for new non-portfolio campaigns

Microsoft's holiday advice: build audiences now

Jerry Quin — Thu, 15 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Microsoft Advertising's Oct 15 holiday post says to build audience lists early, refresh creative with gifting language and strengthen product feeds, and backs it with its own data on how early shoppers start.

What Microsoft says

This is guidance, not a feature announcement. The post's argument is that by the time promotions dominate, shoppers have likely already narrowed their choices, so the work happens early.

Two sets of figures carry that argument, and both are Microsoft's own. From its internal 2025 U.S. retail data, the post says October clicks drive 56% of November conversions and 35% of December conversions. From its 2026 consumer survey, it says the average holiday conversion journey is 52 days and 63% of shoppers start before Halloween.

The post then gives four groups of advice.

Audiences. Build audience lists early so they have enough scale before peak. Use impression-based remarketing, which the post says can help nurture customers who might have seen an ad but weren't ready to act. Keep prospecting and retargeting audiences in separate campaigns so each can have its own bidding goals and messaging. Add in-market audiences, similar audiences and seasonal audiences such as Black Friday and Christmas segments.
Creative. The post says searches for gift guides, gift ideas and custom gifting have tripled year over year. It suggests gifting language in ad copy and in shopping feeds, and pairing that with Performance Max, AI Max and broad match. It also suggests changing the message as shoppers move on: gift ideas while they discover, relevant products and offers while they consider, and limited offers and shipping deadlines near the end.
AI experiences. Microsoft says to activate Performance Max, AI Max or Shopping campaigns to capture demand in AI-driven discovery experiences across Bing and Copilot. It also says to add Offer Highlights through a custom field in the product feed to communicate relevant brand strengths, like free delivery, product guarantees or flexible returns, when there's clear shopper intent. And it says to keep product titles, descriptions, availability, pricing and more clear so they can show up organically in product cards.
Audience ads. Launch them before peak periods to build lists for remarketing, and connect shopping feeds for shoppable formats.

Who has it

The post doesn't list eligibility for most of these tips. The exception is Brand Solutions, which the post says is available in pilot for select U.S. advertisers, with a Microsoft Advertising representative as the way to learn more.

What I'd do this week

These are my suggestions, not steps from Microsoft.

Check list sizes. Look at your audience lists and note which ones are too small to use at peak. Those are the ones to grow first.
Look at campaign structure. If prospecting and retargeting share a campaign, decide whether to split them before peak so each can have its own bidding goal.
Audit the feed for gifting terms. Compare your product titles and descriptions with how people search for gifts in your category, and fix what's vague.
Treat the numbers as Microsoft's. They come from its own data, so check your account's conversion paths before you move budget on the strength of them.

Sources

Gift them a reason: How to earn a place on the holiday shortlist

Google Ads adds channel priority and budget caps

Jerry Quin — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

When you set priorities, Google says campaigns fully fund high-priority channels first (within target for Target CPA or Target ROAS), then send what's left to low-priority ones.

How priority works

When you set priorities, Google says campaigns fully fund high-priority channels first, then send what's left to low-priority ones. If you bid with Target CPA or Target ROAS, high-priority channels get funded within your target.

On Search, that means you can put Google Search, Search partners and the Display Network on different tiers. In Performance Max and Demand Gen, Google surfaces such as Search, YouTube, Maps, Gmail and Discover sit together as one group called "Google channels."

How the caps work

For any channel set to low priority, you can set a maximum percentage of your daily budget. Google says it will aim to keep spend under that limit on a best-effort basis, so treat it as a target, not a hard stop. Google's help page also says budget caps aren't supported for Demand Gen campaigns; priority is.

Google also points out that priority alone will generally not have an impact on Target CPA or Target ROAS campaigns that aren't limited by budget. For those, the cap is the setting that does the work.

The February 2027 change

Starting in February 2027, Search campaigns with the Display Network turned on lose their current spend allocation setup, and Google says you may see channel spend shift. To keep things as they are, Google says you can set the Display Network to low priority with a 50% budget allocation. Google's help page also says the Display Network will no longer serve on Search campaigns using Target Impression Share, and that priorities set before February 2027 apply right away.

What I'd do with it

These are my suggestions, not steps from Google.

Put the 50% setting on the calendar. For the Display-on Search campaigns you found (except Target Impression Share campaigns), plan when to set the Display Network to low priority with a 50% budget allocation. It takes effect as soon as it's saved, so pick the date on purpose, before February rather than after.
Retest Search partners with a small cap. If you turned partners off years ago, a low-priority setting with a tight cap is a safer way to look again than flipping it back on.
Check shared budgets. Priority settings apply there too, so one change can move spend across several campaigns at once.
Watch the cap for a week or two. Since it's best-effort, compare actual channel spend to the percentage you set before trusting it.

Sources

How to read AI Max search terms and ad combinations

Jerry Quin — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Google's help page describes it as a list of the search terms that triggered your ads, with the headlines, landing pages, campaigns and ad groups that made up the full customer ad journey.

What the view shows

Google's help page describes it as a list of the search terms that triggered your ads, with the headlines, landing pages, campaigns and ad groups that made up the full customer ad journey. When Google writes headlines with text customization and picks pages with final URL expansion, this view is where you see what actually served for a given search.

Google's help page lists three other views you can toggle to from the top right corner of the report: search terms, search terms from Dynamic Search Ads, and search terms and landing pages from Dynamic Search Ads.

How I'd use it

These are my suggestions, not steps from Google.

Give it two weeks first. Google says to wait at least 2 weeks after turning on AI Max before making changes like adding negatives. I'd hold off on judging this view until then too.
Read headlines next to the search term. If a headline Google wrote doesn't match what the person searched, that's the first thing I'd flag.
Check the landing page column. If a search went to a page you'd never send it to, add it as a negative URL. Google says you can select the row and use Add as negative keyword or Add as negative URL right from the report.
Pull off-brand assets. Text assets created by text customization are marked "Google AI" in the Added by column of the asset report. Remove the ones that don't fit.

One filter to watch

Google notes that filtering the Match type column for "AI Max" may show lower numbers, because that filter doesn't count "Other search terms." My advice: don't read a low filtered total as AI Max doing less than it is.

For the totals, Google points to two rows at the bottom of the keywords report: "Total: AI Max expanded matches" and "Total: AI Max landing page matches."

Sources

About reporting in AI Max for Search campaigns

Meta ends manual placements for four objectives

Jerry Quin — Wed, 14 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Meta's help page now says that for Engagement, Leads, App promotion and Sales campaigns, you no longer choose placements manually at the ad set level.

What Meta changed

For the four objectives, placement choice moves out of the ad set. Meta's page says "Campaigns using the Awareness or Traffic objectives aren't affected by this change. You can still set placements manually for those objectives."

Meta hasn't printed a date for when the change started, and the gradual rollout means you may still see the old settings for now.

The 10% figure, in Meta's words

Meta says that "in an experiment, ad sets using Advantage+ placements delivered an 10% lower cost per result on average compared to ad sets using manual placement settings." The note on that line says the experiment ran Aug 25-31, 2026 on 86K ad sets, and ends with "Results may vary."

That's one week of Meta's own test, averaged across ad sets. I'd treat it as Meta's case for the change, not as a forecast for your account.

The controls you still have

Meta lists three ways to steer delivery:

Customize media for each placement in the ad creative.
Raise or lower bids for placements with placement value rules.
Set account-level placement exclusions by objective in Account controls.

The exclusions are the one I'd set up first. Meta says they're "available for all objectives," and they apply at the ad account level, so they affect every campaign in the account. If a client has a placement they legally or contractually can't run on, that's now where it lives.

Creative matters more, too. Meta says ads won't deliver in placements where the media isn't supported, and each placement needs at least one supported asset. If your ad sets only have one aspect ratio, add more before the setting goes away.

Sources

What's new in placement settings in Meta Ads Manager

Google Ads adds a Data Strength Uplift metric

Jerry Quin — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Google Ads is launching a Data Strength Uplift metric that shows the conversion gains driven by your data setup, right in the Google Ads UI. Google announced it Oct 13 in its October Demand Gen Drop, along with Data Manager expanding to Display & Video 360 and Google Analytics.

What Google announced

The October Demand Gen Drop is built around one idea: Demand Gen performs only as well as the data feeding it. Google listed three updates.

Data Strength Uplift metric. A new metric in Google Ads that shows the conversion gains your data setup is driving.
Data Manager expansion. Data Manager, Google's tool for connecting and managing first-party data, is expanding to Display & Video 360 and Google Analytics.
Enhanced conversions. Enhanced conversions will soon be available in Display & Video 360 and Google Analytics.

Google also says that, based on an internal analysis, advertisers who build their data strength with Google Tag Gateway see over 20% conversion uplift on average in Demand Gen campaigns. That figure comes from Google's own data for June 3 to June 17, 2026. Treat it as Google's number, not a benchmark for your account.

Why it's worth a look

Until now, the case for better tagging and first-party data mostly came from Google's averages. A metric inside your own account is different. If it works as described, you'll be able to point to a number for your setup instead of a global average.

It also changes how I'd talk about data work with clients. "Fix your tags" is a hard sell. "Here's the conversion lift your data setup is getting, and here's what's missing" is an easier one.

What I'd check first

These are my suggestions, not steps from Google's post.

Confirm enhanced conversions is on and healthy for your main conversion actions.
Look at whether Google Tag Gateway makes sense for your site, since that's the setup Google's 20% figure is tied to.
If you run DV360 or lean on GA, watch for Data Manager and enhanced conversions to show up there, so your first-party data setup matches across products.
When the metric appears, write down its first reading. That's your baseline for any changes you make after.

Google says its Data Strength best practices guide has been refreshed with more steps. Start there before changing anything.

Sources

Build your data strength with October's Demand Gen Drop

GTM now sends gtag config events to the dataLayer

Jerry Quin — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Every Google Tag Manager container snippet now initializes when the container loads, whether or not the page runs a gtag('config') command.

Config commands no longer gate the container

Before this, a page's gtag('config') call could shape when things got going. Google's note says gtm.js snippets now initialize on container load "regardless of any gtag('config') commands." The goal Google gives is consistent, reliable behavior across every site that uses the Google tag.

A new event is now landing in your dataLayer

The part that can bite you is the new event. Config commands now surface in the dataLayer as gtag.config events. If a trigger listens for any custom event, Google says this change "may cause those tags to fire." That can mean duplicate hits, inflated event counts, or a pixel firing on a page where you never meant it to.

The fix is usually small. Tighten the trigger so it matches the event names you actually push, or add an exception for gtag.config. Then test it in Preview mode before you publish.

Keeping gtag config code means gtag.js on every page

If you still want to use the gtag configuration code on your site, Google says every page needs the Google tag (gtag.js) snippet. Sites that mix gtm.js on some templates and gtag.js on others are worth a quick crawl to find the gaps.

It fits a bigger cleanup Google started in August

Google's August help page on tag updates said new deployment snippets would all be the same and would drop the config command. It recommends setting initialization with the gtm init trigger, which can also wait for the config command if you want to keep a legacy setup. And on Oct 12, Google added a release note saying GTM containers now send data directly to Google measurement products, without loading gtag.js separately. That part is opt-in. Google says "no changes will be made automatically," and anyone with edit, approve, or publish permissions can start it from the optimization banner in the container.

Put together, the config command is turning into a dataLayer event rather than the thing that starts your tagging. Audit your wildcard triggers now, while the change is still fresh, rather than finding it in a reporting gap next month.

Sources

Merchant Center image minimum rises to 500 x 500 in January

Jerry Quin — Tue, 13 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

A low image quality warning won't stop your products from showing. Images under 500 x 500 pixels are the real risk, starting January 31, 2027.

A blurry image is a warning, not a block

The Low image quality issue covers images Google sees as blurry, pixelated or low resolution. Google's fix page says plainly that your product will keep showing in ads and free listings while the issue is open.

That doesn't make it meaningless. Google says high image quality "correlates strongly with user engagement and clicks," so these are still worth fixing. They just aren't urgent.

Size is what can disapprove a product

The Image too small issue is different. Google disapproves products whose images don't meet the size minimum, and that minimum is going up.

Today: at least 100 x 100 pixels, or 250 x 250 for clothing.
Starting January 31, 2027: at least 500 x 500 pixels for every product, for both the image link and additional image link attributes.
YouTube Shopping ads: images already need to be at least 500 x 500 to serve on TV.

Google recommends going further, to about 1500 x 1500, for the best performance across listing formats.

Google will optimize some small images for you

Google will begin optimizing some images that are smaller than 500 x 500. Those optimized images meet the new requirement and prevent a disapproval without any action from you. Merchant Center marks them with a warning, Image resolution optimizations applied, so you can find them. To replace one, submit a new image larger than 500 x 500 in your product data source.

Google says this is for some images, so don't count on it covering your whole catalog.

How to find the products at risk

In Merchant Center, go to Products, then Needs attention.
Select View history.
Look for two warnings on the right side of the page: Image too small for upcoming enforcement, and Image resolution optimizations applied.
Select View fix, then Download impacted products, to get the full list.

My take

Work the size list first, since it's the one with a disapproval attached. I'd also replace the images Google has optimized rather than leave them, because an upscaled small image is still a small image, even if it passes the rule. The low quality warnings can wait for your next round of new product photos.

Sources

Merchant Center adds a hub for Google's AI checkout

Jerry Quin — Mon, 12 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Merchant Center now has a UCP integration hub under Settings. It covers setup, sandbox testing, production validation, and an Analytics tab for the checkout funnel.

You pick how far Google's checkout goes

The hub asks which capabilities you support. There are three:

Transfer to merchant cart. Shoppers add items on Google, then finish checkout on your site. Google calls this a fast-track path that doesn't need full product feed setup, product warnings or customer support info.
Native checkout on Google. Shoppers buy without leaving Google. You build three REST endpoints, for creating, updating and completing a checkout.
Identity linking. This uses OAuth 2.0 for loyalty benefits and signed-in checkout, and you can only pick it if you also pick native checkout.

You can do cart transfer, native checkout or both. If you pick both, you finish both checklists.

Test it before it touches a real order

The sandbox page lets you point Google at your UCP profile file and simulate cart and checkout requests, then read back what your server returns. After the production checklist, Google Support reviews the integration and tells you whether you're live or what to fix.

My take

Cart transfer is the one I'd look at first. It keeps the sale on your site and skips the heaviest requirements, so you can learn how shoppers use the Buy flow without handing over the whole checkout. Native checkout is a bigger commitment, and it's the developers' call more than the ad manager's.

For the ads side, the prep is the same either way. Google says Merchant Center stays the hub for the product data behind ads and listings, so a clean feed is still the best thing you can do. If you're on a third-party platform, Google says to ask that provider about its UCP plans.

Sources

Google Ads is testing a prompt box for starting campaigns

Jerry Quin — Sat, 10 Oct 2026 01:05:55 GMT

A screenshot shows a campaign flow that starts with a question about your goal, and Google says it's an experiment.

The short answer

Google Ads is testing a campaign creation flow that opens with a prompt box. You describe your goal, and Google AI suggests goals and assets from what you wrote. Google's Ads Liaison confirmed on X that "this is an experiment." A link to create the campaign manually sits under the box.

What the screenshot shows

A practitioner who posts as Dima (@skills_web) shared a screenshot on Oct 9, captioned "New campaign creation flow on Google Ads." The screen asks one question: "What's your goal for this campaign?"

Under it is a line that reads "Google AI will suggest goals and assets based on your input," then a text field labeled "Describe your goal." Below that is a link that reads "Create campaign manually."

So the flow starts with a sentence you type.

What Google said

Yes, this is an experiment. We welcome advertisers' feedback around how and where this type of workflow would be helpful.

Google's Ads Liaison, replying on X

That's the whole confirmation. There's no help page, no announcement, and nothing on who's in the test or whether it will roll out.

What we don't know yet

Who sees this flow, and in which accounts or countries.
Which campaign types it can build.
What the suggested goals and assets look like once you type something in.
Whether it becomes the default or stays a test.

What to do

If you see the prompt box and don't want it, use "Create campaign manually." It's right there on the same screen.
If you try the prompt, write the goal as a business result, like the leads or sales you're after and what each one is worth to you.
Read every suggested asset before you launch, the same way you'd check any copy Google writes for you.
Google asked for feedback on where this would help. If you have an opinion, tell your rep.

Sources

Google Ads Overview now shows video impressions

Jerry Quin — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

The Conversion paths card now counts video impressions, marked with an eye icon. Check it before you cut video budget, and know it only covers web conversions.

Source: Google Ads Help: About the Overview page (no publish date on page)

Before you cut YouTube or Demand Gen budget, open the Conversion paths card on your Google Ads Overview page and look for video impressions. Google says the card now includes them in its conversion path analysis, marked with an eye icon so you can tell them apart from video views.

The catch, up front: video impressions show for web conversions only. Imported Google Analytics 4 conversions aren't included. If your account counts GA4 imports, this card won't show you the video touches behind them.

What we know

The Conversion paths card on the Overview page now includes video impressions. Google says it helps you understand the impact of earlier brand interactions.
Video impressions get an eye icon to separate them from video views.
Video impressions show for web conversions. Imported GA4 conversions aren't included.
A Performance by stage card groups metrics by stage. Awareness: impressions, CPM, frequency, unique reach, awareness lift. Consideration: views, cost per view, video played to 100%, branded searches (where available), search lift, view-through conversions. Action: conversions, CPA, conversion lift.
With lift studies set up, the card supports Brand Lift, Search Lift and Conversion Lift.
Conversions and Conversion Lift there include only biddable conversions, and your "Include in Conversions," "Count" and cross-device settings affect the number.

What we don't know yet

When this rolled out, or whether every account has it. The page has no date.
Whether video impressions in paths feed attribution or bidding anywhere else. The page only describes the card.
What qualifies as a video impression for path purposes. The page doesn't define it.
Whether Performance by stage shows outside the campaign level. Google describes it as your campaign's performance.

What I'd do

Pull the Conversion paths card for the same date range you're using to judge video spend. If eye icons show up ahead of web conversions, weigh that before you call a YouTube or Demand Gen campaign dead weight. If your account leans on imported GA4 conversions, this card won't settle the question, so check which conversion actions you count first. Then open Performance by stage, which puts awareness, consideration and action numbers in one card.

Sources

About the Overview page

Google Ads experiments now come with an AI read on the results

Jerry Quin — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

A new AI insights panel on the Summary tab lists the experiment's goal, two top insights with recommendations, and three questions for Ask advisor.

Source: Google Ads Help, checked Oct 8, 2026

Google's help page for monitoring experiments now describes AI-powered experiment insights. Open an experiment, and the Summary tab has an AI insights panel with three parts:

The goal the experiment was set up to measure
The top 2 insights, each paired with a recommendation
3 suggested questions that open Ask advisor so you can dig further

It lives on the same page as the scorecard, the confidence intervals and the Apply button.

Who it affects

Anyone running Google Ads experiments, and anyone who hands experiment results to a junior teammate or a client. A short written verdict sitting next to an Apply button is persuasive, whether or not the numbers back it up.

The same help page has two details worth keeping in mind. Google recommends letting an experiment run 2 to 3 weeks, and the scorecard defaults to an 80% confidence interval. Auto-apply is also on by default for some experiment types. If results look favorable, Google applies the treatment and moves 100% of traffic to it.

What I'd do

Use the panel to speed up the read, then check it against the scorecard before you act. Here's the rule I'd give a team:

If the panel says apply, confirm the metric you care about has the blue asterisk that marks statistical significance.
Look at the confidence interval. A range that crosses zero, like -3% to +9%, isn't a win yet.
Make sure the experiment ran at least the 2 to 3 weeks Google itself recommends.
Compare the goal the panel describes with the goal you set. If the insight is about clicks and you were testing cost per conversion, skip it.

Then check auto-apply. The experiment summary card shows its status, and you can turn it off from the Report page. If you want a person to make the final call, turn it off before the results come in.

The Ask advisor questions are a fine place to look for your next test idea. Make the apply decision on your numbers.

Sources

Monitor your experiments

Google Ads now lets you preview AI Max copy before you opt in

Jerry Quin — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Give Google a final URL and it writes up to 10 sample headlines and descriptions. You don't have to turn on text customization to see them.

Source: Google Ads Help, checked Oct 8, 2026

Google's help page for text customization now covers asset previews. When you create or edit an AI Max campaign, the Asset optimization section shows up to 10 sample headlines and descriptions that Google's AI would write from your landing page. You don't need to opt in to text customization to see them.

If the final URL isn't filled in, paste one in and click "Preview examples." Google says most samples load in under 30 seconds. Previews work in every language text customization supports and in almost every business category except adult content.

They also follow text guidelines, the pilot feature that lets you exclude terms and themes. Set guidelines and the preview filters to match. Set them so tight that nothing passes, and Google asks you to loosen them before it shows anything.

Who it affects

Anyone with Search campaigns that used automatically created assets. Google says those campaigns are being upgraded to AI Max, starting in September 2026, so plenty of accounts will have text customization on whether anyone picked it or not.

It also affects anyone whose client or legal team signs off on ad copy. Before this, you saw Google's generated lines after they were already eligible to serve.

What I'd do

Run the preview on your top landing pages before you touch the opt-in. Google builds this copy from your page titles, descriptions, meta tags and page content, so the preview is a quick read on what your site tells Google. If a sample claims free shipping you dropped last year or a price that changed, fix the page first. That's where the line came from.

Treat 10 samples as a sample. Google says generated assets get reviewed and refreshed at least every 48 hours, and landing page changes show up inside that window. A clean preview today doesn't cover next week's sale banner.

Once it's on, check the asset report and the "Added by" column to see which generated lines are serving. If the preview keeps turning up claims you can't stand behind and you don't have text guidelines in your account yet, turn text customization off for that campaign until you do.

Sources

About text customization in Search campaigns

Meta image-to-video and Lifecycle Strategy go live

Jerry Quin — Fri, 09 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Image-to-video in Advantage+ creative is generally available, and Customer Lifecycle Strategy is open to every advertiser. Most of the assistant news is still in testing.

Meta's Advertising Week New York post on Oct 6 had a long list of AI news. A few items are available to advertisers now. A lot of the rest is labeled a test, a beta or "soon."

What's live

Image-to-video in Advantage+ creative. You can generate video from existing static assets, and Meta says the feature is generally available.
Customer Lifecycle Strategy, now open to all advertisers. Mark a campaign as acquisition and Meta recommends excluding existing customers, so you don't have to build those exclusions by hand.
Ads Creative Studio, the creative workspace Meta tested this summer, is rolling out to more advertisers.

What's still a test

Agentic features in the Meta AI business assistant. Meta says it's beginning to test planning and creating campaigns, generating creative, updating targeting and changing budgets by chat, with previews and approvals. Scheduled tasks and alerts are in testing too.
Product video from catalog images, for eligible beta advertisers.
AI audience discovery in Detailed Targeting, which Meta says arrives by the end of the year.
Direct checkout inside Meta's messaging and AI apps.

Who it affects

Anyone running prospecting campaigns on Meta, and Search managers who also own the Meta budget for the same accounts.

What I'd do

Start with Customer Lifecycle Strategy on campaigns that are supposed to find new customers. If you suspect an acquisition campaign has been spending on people who already bought, the exclusion recommendations are a quick way to check. Read them before you accept, so you know which audiences Meta is pulling out.

For image-to-video, pick a campaign that runs mostly static images. Generate videos from your best static ads and run them next to the originals instead of replacing them. Meta says more than 60% of the time people spend on Facebook and Instagram is with video, so a campaign with no video at all is worth a test. Watch every generated video before it goes live.

Hold off on the assistant news until it shows up in your account. When it does, hand it the low-risk jobs first, like summaries and budget reminders, and keep targeting and budget changes behind your own approval.

Sources

Advertising Week New York 2026: New AI Capabilities to Guide Campaigns and Reach Customers

Google's Direct Offers put your discounts inside AI Mode. Here's what Google has confirmed.

Jerry Quin — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

AI Max and Performance Max advertisers can now create Direct Offers in Google Ads and set value limits. Google's AI decides when a deal shows.

Source: Direct Offers, Google (no publish date on page). Checked Oct 8, 2026. A new generation of ads for the AI era of Search, Google Ads & Commerce blog, May 20, 2026. Checked Oct 8, 2026.

Direct Offers is Google's program for showing an advertiser's discount to a shopper inside AI Mode and Search while they're comparing options. Google started it as a pilot in January 2026 and expanded it at Google Marketing Live on May 20.

Google's Direct Offers page says AI Max and Performance Max advertisers can now create Direct Offers right in the Google Ads UI and set value limits so a deal stays active without overspending. Retail and hotel advertisers can still manage offers from Merchant Center and Hotel Center.

What Google says is changing

Placement. Direct Offers are expanding from the AI Mode product viewer to the AI Mode answer, so a deal can show next to other products while someone is still exploring.
Bundling. Brands can upload discounts, giveaways and local coupons, then add eligible products and guardrails. Gemini builds a deal for that specific search, such as a product bundle. In May, Google called parts of this "coming soon."
Checkout. Merchants on the Universal Commerce Protocol get native checkout for promotional products.
Travel. Google says travel partners will soon be able to show hotel rates inside AI trip planning.

Who it affects

Retail advertisers running AI Max for Search or Performance Max, especially with Q4 promotions coming up. Google's May post names AI Max for Search, AI Max for Shopping and Performance Max as the foundation for these new formats.

What we don't know yet

How many accounts can create offers in Google Ads today.
How offer claims show up in reporting, and whether they count as conversions.
How Direct Offers work alongside regular promotion assets.

What I'd do

Decide now which offers you're comfortable letting Google's AI pick and show. Start with one capped offer on a product line with margin to spare, and set the value limit before you launch. Keep sitewide discounts out of it until you see where Google puts the first one. If you aren't running AI Max or Performance Max yet, add Direct Offers to the list of features that need one of them.

Sources

Google Ads can pull promotions from your website. Here's how to check.

Jerry Quin — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Automated promotions turns sale banners on your landing pages into promotions on eligible Search and PMax campaigns. Here's where to see what Google added and how to turn it off.

Source: Google Ads Help: About Automated promotions (no publish date on page)

Google Ads has an automated asset called Automated promotions. Google finds deals on your website landing pages and attaches them to eligible Search and Performance Max campaigns, without you building a promotion asset.

Google's own example: a landing page advertising "20% off on black sweaters" turns into a promotion in your ads. That's handy when the banner is current. It's a problem when the banner is from Labor Day.

What we know

It lives in account-level automated assets. Google's settings menu lists "On (recommended)" and Off.
Eligible campaigns are active Search or PMax campaigns with location assets attached (Local Ad campaigns included) and no manual promotions running. A campaign with your own promotion running is skipped.
Each automated promotion is eligible to serve for less than 24 hours at a time and can be re-enabled while Google can still verify the offer on your site. Google says that will change once it can read start and end dates.
To find them, go to Assets and filter Asset type to Promotion. Automated ones show "Google AI" in the Added by column, and hovering over Google AI shows sourcing details.
To turn it off: Assets, then the three-dot "More" menu in the filter bar, then Account level automated assets, then the three-dot menu, then Advanced settings, then set Automated promotions to Off. Google may ask why.

What we don't know yet

How many accounts already have it switched on. Google hasn't said.
Whether Google reads anything beyond landing pages. The help page only mentions your website.
Whether Google will catch conditional offers like minimum spend, member-only, or first-order codes before showing them.
What reporting looks like beyond segmenting by click type.

What I'd do

Open Account level automated assets in every account with location assets and see where Automated promotions is set. Then make the call on purpose: on, off, or covered by your own promotion asset. If it's on, filter Assets to Promotion and look for "Google AI" in the Added by column so you know what's already showing. And look at your landing pages, because any stale sale banner can end up as ad copy.

Sources

About Automated promotions

Google Ads tests an AI tool that translates whole Search campaigns

Jerry Quin — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

It builds a new campaign in the target language and leaves the original alone. It also copies your budget one-for-one, currency and all.

Source: Google Ads Help: About the AI campaign localization tool for Search campaigns (beta) (no publish date on page; checked Oct 7, 2026)

Google Ads has a beta tool that takes an English Search campaign and builds a translated copy for a new market. It translates headlines, descriptions, sitelinks, callouts, and keywords. For images with text on them, it strips the text and adds the translated message as supplemental text assets.

The original campaign is never touched. Localizing creates a brand-new, independent campaign, and by default it publishes paused.

The detail I'd tape to my monitor: budgets and bids are copied exactly, with no currency conversion. Google's own example is a $100 USD budget that stays a $100 USD budget in the new campaign. Fine for a test. For a real launch, set a budget and bids that fit the new market's costs before anything goes live.

For landing pages, you either install a Google JavaScript snippet that translates page text for people who click your ad, or bulk find-and-replace your URLs (example.com/en to example.com/fr).

What we know

The source language must be English (US). Targets: Dutch, French, French (Canada), German, Italian, Polish, Portuguese (Brazil), Portuguese (Portugal), Spanish (Spain), and Spanish (Latin America and Caribbean).
The review table shows the original asset, the translation, a "Translation back" column re-translated into English, and translation notes. You can add global instructions such as "Do not translate the brand name."
The original must be active or paused. Removed, draft, experiment, and shadow campaigns aren't supported.
Three ways in: select a campaign in the Campaigns table, go to Tools and then Localization, or apply a localization recommendation.

What we don't know yet

How widely the beta is available. Google doesn't say.
When PMax support arrives. The help page says Performance Max support starts September 2026, a date that has already passed, but the rest of the page still says Search only.
Whether translated keywords keep their match types and negatives.
What the translation snippet does to page speed, SEO, or conversion tracking.

What I'd do

Treat the output as a first draft. Change the budget in the setup step (Google asks for the new campaign's location and budget there), and before you un-pause, reset bids for the new market, have a native speaker read the keywords and the Translation back column, and use the global instructions box to lock your brand and product names. If you use the snippet, check that your conversion tags still fire on the translated page.

Sources

About the AI campaign localization tool for Search campaigns (beta)

ChatGPT Ads adds measurement partners and Negative Phrases, with visual ads testing in October

Jerry Quin — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Visual ads start testing later in October. The measurement integrations are available now.

The partner list is long

For conversion data, OpenAI named Hightouch, Tealium and LiveRamp. For attribution, it named AppsFlyer, Triple Whale, Adjust, DV Rockerbox, Northbeam, Branch, Singular, Kochava, Airbridge and Tenjin. For full-funnel measurement, it named Fospha, Measured and INCRMNTAL. OpenAI is exploring geo-based incrementality tests with Haus, Measured and WorkMagic, which it calls "still in its early stages."

The early numbers come from vendors

DV Rockerbox reported one advertiser's attributed CPA at 15.3% below its blended paid-search benchmark. Triple Whale said 93% of another brand's ChatGPT Ads visitors were new. WorkMagic reported statistically significant lift for a wellness brand. OpenAI gives no spend, dates or sample sizes for any of them, so I read them as one advertiser each.

Brand safety is still a pilot

OpenAI is building brand suitability pilots with DoubleVerify and Integral Ad Science. It hasn't said when they start or whether the results will be published.

Sources

Building advertising for the way people use AI

Microsoft Advertising connects to HubSpot and makes optimization experiments generally available

Jerry Quin — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

B2B advertisers can now connect Microsoft Advertising to HubSpot, and A/B experiments are generally available ahead of the holidays.

Source: Microsoft Advertising blog: What's new this September | Sep 30, 2026

Microsoft Advertising now connects to HubSpot, and A/B optimization experiments are generally available.

First, Microsoft Advertising is now live in HubSpot. You can use CRM data to reach audiences, including verified LinkedIn professionals, across Bing, Copilot, Outlook, Xbox, and more. New leads can trigger whatever next step you set up in HubSpot, like assigning a rep or starting a nurture email. Ad clicks connect to HubSpot contacts and deals, so you can see which ads drive pipeline and revenue.

HubSpot's setup guide, updated Sep 18, 2026, says connecting takes Publish access to the ads tool in HubSpot and Super Admin access on the Microsoft Advertising account. Microsoft Advertising customer-level accounts can't be connected, so each ad account has to be connected on its own.

Second, optimization experiments are now generally available for Search, Shopping, Audience, and Performance Max campaigns. They're A/B tests for bidding, targeting, creative, and more, with a side-by-side results page. You can apply a winner to the original campaign or spin it into a new one.

What we know

LinkedIn company lists now hold up to 10,000 companies per list, up from 1,000. They work with LinkedIn profile targeting in Search and Audience campaigns. The data excludes users in the EEA, UK, and Switzerland.
Microsoft pushed back its REST-only plan for new API features. New features will ship in both SOAP and REST until SOAP is fully retired on Jan 31, 2027.

What we don't know yet

Regional availability. HubSpot's setup guide lists the integration for all HubSpot products and plans but doesn't mention regions.
Whether there's a per-ad-group limit on company lists. Microsoft's post doesn't say.
Whether PMax experiments have limits that Search experiments don't.

What I'd do

If you run B2B lead gen on HubSpot, connect it now, even if you won't change bidding for a while, so tracking and reporting are working before the holiday push. And with experiments now generally available, run one controlled test before the holidays instead of pushing a bid change straight into your main campaign.

Sources

Holistic or Growth? What I'd uncheck in Google Ads' Investment Strategy before hitting Apply all

Jerry Quin — Thu, 08 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMT

Google's budget tool has a new mode that can move money between your campaigns, on top of asking for more. Start with the mode that can't cut anything.

Key takeaways

Recommended Investment Strategy now has two modes. Holistic, the one labeled "Recommended," can take budget away from campaigns. Growth only adds.
Every eligible campaign is selected by default, so do your unchecking before you hit Apply all.
Apply all can change your Target CPA or Target ROAS along with the budget.
The forecast covers seven days. Google lists seasonality for Performance Planner's forecasts, not this one, so for Q4 planning Performance Planner is still the better tool.

Primary source: Google Ads Help: About Recommended Investment Strategy (no publish date on page)

If you've managed Google Ads for any length of time, you know the budget card. "Your campaign is limited by budget." Sometimes it's right, and it's always easy to ignore. The Investment Strategy tab is the bigger version of that card, and Google's latest update gave it two modes.

The short answer

One of them does more than ask for money. It can take money away, too.

That's the part I want to slow down on.

Where to find it and what changed

Go to Campaigns, then Recommendations, then the Investment Strategy tab. It works at the account level, one account at a time. If you plan across an MCC, that still happens in Performance Planner.

There are two modes now. In Google's words:

Holistic "reallocates existing budget from campaigns that are underutilized or have lower efficiency to your highest-performing campaigns, and also allocates your additional weekly spend."
Growth "strictly adds new budget to constrained campaigns ... without any reduction on any of your existing campaigns' budgets."

Holistic "reallocates existing budget from campaigns that are underutilized or have lower efficiency to your highest-performing campaigns, and also allocates your additional weekly spend."

Google Ads Help

Holistic carries the "Recommended" label. Growth doesn't. So the view Google points you to first is the one that can cut.

I don't think Holistic is a bad idea. It's answering a fair question: if you won't add much budget, where should the budget you already have go? Agencies ask that every month. My issue is that Google doesn't define how it picks the campaigns that lose. Each row gets a short "Recommendation insights" note, but the help page never says what counts as "underutilized."

How the math works

You pick a goal: Clicks, Conversions, or Conversion value. Then you tell it how much to grow, either as additional weekly spend or as a weekly increase in your goal, like "50 more conversions."

The Performance Graph runs on a 7-day forecast.

Source: Google Ads Help: About Recommended Investment Strategy

The table under it shows each campaign's new budget (and in Holistic, whether that budget goes up or down), any recommended Target CPA or Target ROAS change, the estimated weekly impact, and Google's Recommendation insights.

Keep the seven days in mind. Google's own comparison puts it plainly: Investment Strategy gives you a 7-day forecast with one-click apply, and Performance Planner gives you forecasts up to 18 months out that include seasonality. Google says the 7-day forecast accounts for recent performance trends and conversion delays. It doesn't mention seasonality. A week of recent trends can't see Black Friday coming, and that's the week that pays for the quarter.

The bigger gap is what the help page leaves out. Google doesn't say how it decides a campaign is "underutilized" or has "lower efficiency." It doesn't say whether that's measured on the conversion action you picked, on last-click, or on something else. Until Google spells it out, I'd treat every "decrease" row as a question to check.

The campaigns Holistic can quietly underfund

The line on the help page I'd pay most attention to: eligible campaigns are selected by default. You can uncheck any of them, and unchecked campaigns keep their current budget and bid strategy. The page doesn't say whether brand campaigns, holdouts, or campaigns still learning get any special treatment, so I'd assume they don't.

These are the ones I'd check first.

Brand. Brand campaigns often can't spend their full budget because there are only so many people searching your name. A tool hunting for unused budget could read that as "underutilized." I wouldn't let a 7-day forecast decide how much of your brand traffic you're willing to give away.
Geo holdouts and tests. Their whole job is to stay different from the rest of the account. Move budget into or out of them and the test is over.
Campaigns still in learning. A week of data is the reason they look weak. Pulling budget now makes it harder for them to ever look strong.
Campaigns built around a different conversion action. If you set the goal to Conversions and a campaign is optimizing toward a conversion action that isn't your real business goal, the tool compares it on a goal it was never trying to hit.

The tool gives you filters for Conversion action, Campaign type, and Location. Use them. Filtering by conversion action is the fastest way to see whether you're comparing apples to apples before anything moves.

Watch the bundled target change

This part is easy to miss. If you apply a suggested Target CPA or Target ROAS change in the tool, the campaign's bid target updates along with the new budget. Apply all takes you to a confirmation summary, and Confirm updates campaigns "instantly."

That's two changes in one click. Three weeks from now, when conversions are up or down, you won't be able to tell whether the budget did it or the target did. I'd rather apply the budget first, let it run, and make the target decision on its own later. If the target change is a good idea today, it'll still be a good idea in two weeks.

How I'd run it, step by step

Open Growth first. It can't cut anything, so it's a free look at which campaigns Google thinks are budget-limited.
Write that list down and compare it with what you already know about the account. If Google flags a campaign you know is capped on purpose, that tells you something about how the tool reads your account.
Switch to Holistic. Go down the New budget column and look at the decreases before the increases.
Uncheck brand, holdouts, anything in learning, and anything optimizing toward a conversion action that isn't your real business goal.
Leave the Target CPA and Target ROAS suggestions unapplied unless you meant to change them today.
Screenshot the confirmation summary before you hit Confirm, and note the date in your change log.
After two to four weeks, compare before and after using your own CRM or revenue numbers, and treat Google's estimated uplift as a second opinion.

When Performance Planner is the better tool

Investment Strategy is built for quick, one-click budget moves inside a single account. If you need seasonality, a longer horizon, or a plan across several accounts in an MCC, use Performance Planner. For holiday budgets, that's most of us right now.

What I'd still like Google to answer

Google's help page doesn't give any accuracy data for the 7-day forecasts, so the only check you have is comparing the forecast with what your account does afterward. A few other open questions:

How "underutilized" and "lower efficiency" are calculated.
Whether Holistic would cut a brand campaign, holdout, or learning campaign if you leave it checked.
Whether these changes show up in change history as recommendation applies.
Whether auto-apply can trigger them. If you have auto-apply on for budget recommendations, now is a good time to look at that setting again.

Do this before your next Apply all

What to do

Open Growth, make your uncheck list, and save it somewhere your team can see it. Brand, holdouts, learning campaigns, and anything optimizing toward a conversion action that isn't your real business goal stay unchecked until you decide otherwise. The tool can do the math. Deciding which campaigns are off-limits is still our job.

Sources

About Recommended Investment Strategy